How-To Guide: GOAL Modelling - Professional
How-To Guide for:
This page will focus on how to use both Professional Models:
- The xG Model (Insert Link)
- The Acca Builder
The xG Model is our go-to tool for analysing individual fixtures. Whilst the Acca Builder does what it says on the tin – build your accumulator.
With data ranging from the last 3 seasons, to the current season, right up until their most recent game. We have taken complex data and made it clear.
This page outlines these tools – step by step.
1. Select Your League and Fixture
- Choose from one of the Main 5 European Leagues + English Championship.
- After selecting a league, choose your fixture from the upcoming games.
2. Instant Odds Display
- After choosing your fixture, the odds will automatically load for Match Odds, Under/Over 2.5, and BTTS.
3. Home and Away xG Charts
Visual projections for both teams include:
- 5 Different Goal Likelihoods
- 3 Different Projected Goal Totals
Calculated using:
- Goals Scored/Conceded
- xG Totals
- Goals Scored/Conceded in this Price Range
- Form from the last 5 games, 10 games and Full season
4. Calculated vs Market Odds
Along the bottom of the Model you’ll see:
- Each market’s ‘fair’ value price
- A combined average across all of our metrics
- Instant value indicators
5. Price Range for Each Team
- See the price range filters we are using for both sides
6. League-Wide Performance
- See how all the teams in this league have performed at these odds – compare their goals to the average in the league over the past 3 seasons
7. Expert Notes
- Key data and insights are summarised for you to quickly spot significant trends
8. Form Over the Years
Review:
- P/L
- Number of Scenarios
- Percentages
Split across the last 10 games, in the price range, and overall for team and league
9. Projected Scorelines
- An easy-view display of what our model expects the scoreline to be – based on each difference pricing category
10. Send Selection to BetLog
- Found a value bet? Export it directly to your BetLog with one click
1. Apply Your Filters
- Select from the same criteria used in the xG Model:
xG, Price Range, Average Goals, Goal Frequency
2. Excluded Fixtures
- If a team doesn’t have enough valid price range data, we’ll exclude them – and show you who’s been removed
- Fixtures will only be excluded when you have the price range filter ticked
3. Value in a Chosen Market
Do you want…
- Value BTTS Picks?
- High-Scoring Home Sides?
- Close Games?
We have over 15 filters available for you to explore
4. Accumulator Selections
Instantly Get:
- Suggested double, treble, four-fold and five-fold
- All picks relevant to your chosen market in step 3.
5. Recommended Bets
Data driven multi-market acca:
- BTTS + Match Odds Double
- Four-Fold acca with our strongest weekend selections
7. Top 3 Trebles
- View the strongest Match Odds trebles for each Home/Draw/Away
Track your selections or automate them via bot integration.
Across both the xG Model and Acca Builder, you’ll regularly come across the ‘Add to BetLog’ option. When you do:
- Choose whether it’s a back or a lay
- Enter your stake
- Your Selection will be saved in the BetLog
The BetLog is fully compatible with the BF Bot Manager – just save as a CSV and upload. For those without a bot, the BetLog is still a way for you to stay organised and store your selections in one place whilst you continue identifying value across the leagues.
